Super Forecasting

This isn't really a book about investing or trading but it does highlight some key principles that can be applied to analysing financial markets - be onjective in your decisions.

Key Takeaways

Lesson 1

Decompose markets into variables you can measure. Edge comes from structure, not intuition.

Lesson 2

A good strategy is adaptive and always nudging its view as reality shifts.

Lesson 3

Build systems that make probability-weighted decisions, not binary ones.

Why FoundryStrat Finds this Useful

1. Break Problems Into Smaller, Measurable Components

Superforecasters don’t try to predict big, vague outcomes in one leap.
They decompose questions into bite-sized, more forecastable pieces.

For traders and investors:

Break a trade idea into components: trend strength, macro backdrop, valuation, catalysts, sentiment, volatility.
Score each component independently.
Recombine them into a structured probability or signal.

This is the core of any robust investment framework.

2. Update Your Views Relentlessly — But Proportionally

Superforecasters constantly adjust their probabilities as new data arrives, but they avoid overreacting.

For traders:

Build systems that adjust to incoming data (price, fundamentals, volatility)
Use Bayesian thinking, so revise, don’t rebuild
Avoid “fixed” narratives.
Incorporate small, continuous updates rather than big emotional pivots.

3. Think in Probabilities, Not Predictions

Superforecasters avoid absolute claims like “the market will rally.”
They use calibrated probabilities: “There is a 60% chance this trend continues.”

This mindset eliminates ego and allows better risk control.

For traders and investors:

Every trade should be a probability bet, not a belief.
Your sizing, stop placement, and expected return all flow from that probability.
Evaluate performance by calibration (were you directionally right?) and resolution (were your probability bands meaningful?).

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Super Forecasting

Key Takeaways

Lesson 1

Lesson 2

Lesson 3

Why FoundryStrat Finds this Useful

1. Break Problems Into Smaller, Measurable Components

Superforecasters don’t try to predict big, vague outcomes in one leap.
They decompose questions into bite-sized, more forecastable pieces.

For traders and investors:

Break a trade idea into components: trend strength, macro backdrop, valuation, catalysts, sentiment, volatility.

Score each component independently.

Recombine them into a structured probability or signal.

This is the core of any robust investment framework.

2. Update Your Views Relentlessly — But Proportionally

Superforecasters constantly adjust their probabilities as new data arrives, but they avoid overreacting.

For traders:

Build systems that adjust to incoming data (price, fundamentals, volatility)

Use Bayesian thinking, so revise, don’t rebuild

Avoid “fixed” narratives.

Incorporate small, continuous updates rather than big emotional pivots.

3. Think in Probabilities, Not Predictions

Superforecasters avoid absolute claims like “the market will rally.”
They use calibrated probabilities: “There is a 60% chance this trend continues.”

This mindset eliminates ego and allows better risk control.

For traders and investors:

Every trade should be a probability bet, not a belief.

Your sizing, stop placement, and expected return all flow from that probability.

Evaluate performance by calibration (were you directionally right?) and resolution (were your probability bands meaningful?).

Super Forecasting

Key Takeaways

Lesson 1

Lesson 2

Lesson 3

Why FoundryStrat Finds this Useful

1. Break Problems Into Smaller, Measurable Components

Superforecasters don’t try to predict big, vague outcomes in one leap. They decompose questions into bite-sized, more forecastable pieces.

For traders and investors:

Break a trade idea into components: trend strength, macro backdrop, valuation, catalysts, sentiment, volatility.

Score each component independently.

Recombine them into a structured probability or signal.

This is the core of any robust investment framework.

2. Update Your Views Relentlessly — But Proportionally

Superforecasters constantly adjust their probabilities as new data arrives, but they avoid overreacting.

​

For traders:

Build systems that adjust to incoming data (price, fundamentals, volatility)

Use Bayesian thinking, so revise, don’t rebuild

Avoid “fixed” narratives.

Incorporate small, continuous updates rather than big emotional pivots.

​

3. Think in Probabilities, Not Predictions

Superforecasters avoid absolute claims like “the market will rally.” They use calibrated probabilities: “There is a 60% chance this trend continues.”

This mindset eliminates ego and allows better risk control.

​

For traders and investors:

Every trade should be a probability bet, not a belief.

Your sizing, stop placement, and expected return all flow from that probability.

Evaluate performance by calibration (were you directionally right?) and resolution (were your probability bands meaningful?).

Superforecasters don’t try to predict big, vague outcomes in one leap.
They decompose questions into bite-sized, more forecastable pieces.

Superforecasters avoid absolute claims like “the market will rally.”
They use calibrated probabilities: “There is a 60% chance this trend continues.”