PLTR: A Second Spring Attempt

Palantir has been one of our strongest long-term position trades.

We first built a position in PLTR back in 2023 and still hold part of that original trade. From those early entries, the remaining position is up around 13x, although it has been higher at the recent peak.

That is the power of catching a major trend early and then letting a portion of the position run. Not every trade needs to be over-managed. Sometimes the best outcome comes from taking risk off, banking gains, and leaving a runner to compound.

But alongside that long-term holding, PLTR has also started to offer shorter-term swing opportunities.

The Recent Spring Trade

A few weeks ago, PLTR produced what looked like a classic Wyckoff Spring setup. Marked up on the chart by '1st Spring'.

The stock undercut the prior low, shook out weak holders, then quickly reclaimed the level. That gave us an entry with a defined stop below the low.

The initial move was strong, but there was no proper follow-through. As quickly as the stock broke higher, it unwound. We managed to exit with a small profit, but the trade did not develop into the larger move we were looking for. A spring is not a guarantee - no trade ever is. It's just a setup and now we have another one.

The edge comes from having a defined entry, a defined risk point, and the discipline to move on when the market does not confirm.

A New Spring Is Setting Up

The stock has pulled back into the same broad area, tested the prior lows, and is attempting to stabilise. The key point is that the recent selling has taken the stock back into a potential shakeout zone rather than breaking it decisively lower.

Today’s candle is a trigger as it breaks back above following a close below a recent low. If PLTR can break above today’s high, that would give us a new trigger for entry.

The plan is simple:

Entry: buy the break of today’s candle

Stop: below the recent lows

Target: recent high to take some profit, 1/3 or 1/2 depending on your risk appetite

Runner: keep a portion open if momentum returns

This gives us a clean risk/reward structure. The stop is obvious, the target is clear, and if PLTR can regain momentum, there is the potential for a runner back towards the previous highs.

Why This Setup Works

The best spring trades often look uncomfortable at the point of entry. The stock has usually just sold off, sentiment has cooled, and short-term holders have been forced out.

That is exactly why the setup can work.

A spring is designed to identify the moment where price briefly breaks support, attracts sellers, triggers stops, and then reverses back into the range. If buyers step in after that shakeout, the move can be powerful because the market has already cleared out a lot of weak positioning.

PLTR remains a volatile stock, so position sizing matters. This is not a setup to chase blindly. The attraction is that the trade has a clear invalidation point. If the stock fails and breaks the lows, we are wrong and we exit.

Trade Plan

We will look to buy a break above today’s candle.

Stops will sit below the recent lows. The first target is the recent high, where we would expect to take some profit if the move develops. The ideal outcome would be to leave a runner, especially given the strength PLTR has shown over the longer term.

This is a shorter-term trade around a long-term winner. The original 2023 position remains a good example of why letting winners run can be so powerful. This new setup is a separate swing opportunity, with its own entry, stop and target.

As always, the key is not prediction. It is process. We wait for the trigger, define the risk, and let the market decide.